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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2016-05-15T15:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2016-05-15T15:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/10657/-1
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2016-05-18T00:30Z (-5.0h, +5.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 80.0%
Prediction Method: DBM + ESWF
Prediction Method Note:

DBM+ESWF (swe.uni-graz.at)
CME date and distance: 2015-05-15T20:15Z @ 24Rs
CME speed at distance: 850+/-50km/s
SW speed: 450+/-50km/s
gamma = 0.20×10-7 km-1,
CME half-width = 40°
CME direction = W10-15°

Lead Time: 17.50 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Manuela Temmer (UNIGRAZ) on 2016-05-17T07:00Z

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